Estimating risk‐neutral freight rate dynamics: A nonparametric approach
نویسندگان
چکیده
We present a new method for estimating the unobservable drift of risk-neutral spot freight rate process from Forward Freight Agreements (FFA) prices in absence closed-form solution and demonstrate robustness via numerical simulations. Moreover, we conduct empirical experiments involving estimation standard parametric models nonparametric model using Baltic Exchange data. find that our approach yields lowest FFA pricing errors across maturities. Finally, estimate market price risk, analyze its behavior in-sample out-of-sample observe that, when estimated approach, it evolves consistently with indices under study.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Futures Markets
سال: 2021
ISSN: ['0270-7314', '1096-9934']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/fut.22244